ING analyst Chris Turner said in a webinar that the dollar could fall if the Supreme Court rules that there are questions about the legality of Trump's use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs. He believes that this decline is mainly achieved through the potential impact on the U.S. bond market. He said the loss of tariff revenue could lead to a sell-off in long-term Treasury bonds. A pause in tariffs would also benefit the rest of the world, thereby supporting other currencies. Howeve...
Chris Turner at ING said in a note that Wednesday's policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand highlighted the risk to the dollar and sterling that interest rates could be cut more aggressively. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but two policymakers voted for a 50 basis point cut. The Fed said inflation could rise in the short term, but should ease next year given spare capacity in the labour market. Turner pointed out that the Federal Reserve and the...
Francesco Pesole, an analyst at ING, said in a note that U.S. inflation data later today could beat expectations, but any gains in the dollar were likely to be short-lived. He said labor market data were more influential than inflation data because the price shock from tariffs was seen as temporary, and the latest non-farm payrolls report had been revised sharply downward. He said if inflation is higher than expected, but with labor...
Francesco Pesole, an analyst at ING, said in a report that Friday's summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the Russia-Ukraine conflict could have an impact on the euro. "If a ceasefire is achieved in the coming weeks, the euro could perform well, mainly against the dollar, yen and Swiss franc." Hopes of a truce with Russia and Ukraine have sent crude prices lower since the beginning of August. However, he said considerable uncertainty surrounding the out...
ING economist Francesco Pesole said in a report that the dollar weakened only modestly after Trump nominated Stephen Milan to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve board. Milan, who has recently criticised the Fed over interest rate cuts and called for an overhaul of the central bank, will fill the post temporarily until his term expires in January. The news was also offset by reports that Fed governor Paul Waller was a favourite to succeed Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell. With another potential c...
As European Union leaders prepare to respond to Mr. Trump's threat to impose 30 per cent tariffs on European imports, ING economists Carsten Brzeski and Inga Fechner wrote: "In his letter to Mr. Von der Leyen over the weekend, Mr. Trump said the tariffs would take effect on August 1. Three weeks is a long time." The European Union was right to wait for that deadline before pushing back against US imports of products such as steel. They told investors that the current situation "still leaves a lo...
Francesco Pesole, an analyst at ING, said in a note that the market needs to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further for the dollar to weaken. Without that, the dollar is more likely to strengthen in the short term. It is possible that the U.S. money market will start to show expectations of unchanged interest rates in November or December. The dollar could also appreciate due to uncertainty ahead of the US Presidential Election.