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Netherlands International: Even if inflation exceeds expectations, the dollar is unlikely to continue to rise

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2025-08-12 10:49:46
US inflation data to be released later today is likely to beat expectations, but any gains in the dollar are likely to be short-lived, ING analyst Francesco Pesole said in a note. He said the labour market data was more influential than the inflation data because price shocks triggered by tariffs were seen as temporary and the latest non-farm payrolls report had been revised sharply downward. He said if inflation is higher than expected, but accompanied by a further deterioration in the labour market, it could still be in line with expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. That means higher-than-expected inflation is unlikely to lead to a sustained rise in the dollar. ING expects core inflation to rise 0.4% month-on-month in July, above economists' consensus forecast of 0.3%. (Golden Ten)
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