Federal Reserve resolution outlook: Powell's press conference may present a hawkish surprise

The press conference of Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell is where the market is most concerned. The current basic situation is that in the absence of government data, Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell will maintain the status quo and will not reveal much in terms of forward guidance. The only thing that could surprise the market is that he shows uncertainty about the December rate cut, which is likely to be seen as a hawkish surprise, because the market is currently confident about the December rate cut. In theory, the immediate reaction of the market to this will be: US stocks fall, US bond yields rise, short bond yields rise faster than long bond yields, the dollar strengthens significantly, and precious metals such as gold and silver fall. On the other hand, if Powell's statement on the December rate cut remains unchanged, the market will continue to fluctuate according to the development of the trade situation. (Golden Ten)