Global stock markets staged a stunning "deep V" rally in April, with the S & P 500 enjoying a 9-day rally since its plunge in early April, setting a record for the longest streak since November 2004. In response, Hartnett, chief investment officer of Bank of America, pointed out in the latest research report that this trend indicates that investors expect Trump to shift to a "three-low" policy in the second 100 days, that is, lowering tariffs, lowering interest rates and lowering taxes. At the s...
全球股市在4月演绎了一场惊人的"深V"反弹,其中标普500自4月初暴跌后迎来9日连涨,创下2004年11月以来最长连涨纪录。对此,美银首席投资官Hartnett在最新研报中指出,这一走势表明投资者预期特朗普在第二个百日转向“三低”政策,即降低关税、降低利率和降低税收。同时“软”数据引发的对美国经济衰退的担忧也在缓解,Hart...
Bank of America strategists say investors should sell U.S. stocks and the dollar on the upside, warning that the conditions for continued gains are fading. The team led by Michael Hartnett said the dollar is in the midst of a long period of depreciation, and the trend of money flowing out of U.S. assets will continue until the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, the U.S. reaches a trade deal with China, and consumer spending remains firm. U.S. assets are in...
美国银行策略师表示,投资者应该逢涨卖出美股和美元,并警告称持续上涨的条件正在消失。Michael Hartnett领导的团队表示,美元正处于长期贬值的过程中,而资金从美国资产流出的趋势还会持续,将会一直到美联储开始降息、美国与中国达成贸易协议以及消费者支出保持坚挺为止。美国资产在...
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said a strong rally in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies has made those asset classes look frothy. The S & P 500's price-to-book ratio surges to 5.3 times in 2024, close to the 5.5 times peak reached at the peak of the tech bubble in March 2000, according to data compiled by the agency. If the S & P 500 approaches 6,666, or about 10 percent above current levels, the risk of an "overshoot" in early 2025 is high, Hartnett said. The bank's bull-bear market...
Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett says investors should consider selling U.S. stocks if Trump's victory triggers a rally in stocks. That echoes Citigroup's view earlier this week. If Trump wins and gains a Republican majority in the Senate and House of Representatives, it could lead to tax cuts and immigration controls. That would push inflation and interest rates higher, putting stocks at risk. Wall Street's biggest...
Hartnett, a well-known strategist at Bank of America, pointed out that the current market reaction to the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut seems to be following the playbook of "soft rate cuts" or "panic rate cuts". US stocks and credit markets are digesting the expectation of a 250 basis point Fed rate cut by the end of 2025 and an 18% increase in S & P 500 earnings. "Risk is not much better, so investors are forced to chase" the rally, and "bubble risk" is returning. For this madness...