News list for "Note the US government"

On October 3rd, according to forecast market data, investors expect the U.S. government shutdown to last 10 days or longer. On the Kalshi platform, contracts that trigger redemption if the shutdown lasts for more than 10 days trade at 63 cents, meaning the market believes that the probability of this happening is 63%; contracts that redeem if the shutdown lasts for more than 15 days have a corresponding probability of 40%. On the Polymarket platform, similar contracts show a 34% probability that...

2025-10-03 10:44:08