On October 3rd, according to forecast market data, investors expect the U.S. government shutdown to last 10 days or longer.
On the Kalshi platform, contracts that trigger redemption if the shutdown lasts for more than 10 days trade at 63 cents, meaning the market believes that the probability of this happening is 63%; contracts that redeem if the shutdown lasts for more than 15 days have a corresponding probability of 40%.
On the Polymarket platform, similar contracts show a 34% probability that the shutdown will end between October 10 and 14, and a 40% probability that it will continue beyond October 15.
Prediction market investors are betting that the U.S. government shutdown will last 10 days or longer
2025-10-03 10:44:08
Disclaimer:
1. The information provided does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions and bear all risks themselves.
2. The copyright of this content belongs to the original author. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the stance or position of this website.
Previous article：
预测市场投资者押注美国政府本次停摆将持续10天或更长时间Next article：
MGBX将于10月3日18:00（SGT）上线2Z（DoubleZero）现货交易
