Morgan Stanley: The Bank of England's policy rhetoric may be subject to dovish fine-tuning

Morgan Stanley expects the Bank of England to vote 6:3 in favor of interest rates unchanged. But there could be a dovish shift in policy language, suggesting a move could come in November. "Given the full data since August, and the size of existing restrictions, we think the market should price a rate cut in September slightly higher. But even so, we don't think there's more than a 30% chance of a rate cut." The Bank of England expects the size of QT next year to be 100 billion pounds, previously expected to be 90 billion, but still thinks the risk is skewed lower, "November is the key meeting of the Bank of England this year, and we expect it to set the stage for a faster pace of rate cuts, as disinflationary momentum in service prices is building. We expect interest rate cuts in November and December, and bank rates will reach 3.25% by August next year. " (Jin Ten)