Barclays: Bank of England expected to vote 8-1 to keep interest rates unchanged

The Bank of England is expected to vote 8-1 in favour of keeping interest rates unchanged and reducing its asset purchase facility (APF) holdings by 100 billion pounds, according to Barclays Analytics. "We believe there is some probability that Ramsden and/or Taylor will vote with Dingella in favour of a rate cut, so there is a risk that our 1-8 voting margin is expected to lean 3-6." The tone of the meeting statement is expected to remain cautious, while acknowledging further progress towards a sustainable return of inflation to target. Existing guidance around the need to maintain restrictive policy is likely to remain in place. Interest rates are expected to be cut by 25 basis points in November, December and February, May and August next year, reaching 3.75% by August 2025.