Sivers Revenue and Profit Estimates Rise on Higher Wafer Capacity Allocations

Serenity said Sivers could generate annual revenue of $341 million to $512 million from its optical array products if it receives about 10% of wafer capacity from contract manufacturer Win Semi under an asset-light model, assuming a 65% yield and an average selling price of $50 to $75. Based on management's gross margin target of 50% to more than 60%, annual gross profit would be about $205 million to $307 million. According to Odaily, Serenity also said that at Sivers' current market value of about $1.1 billion, the scenario would imply a market value-to-gross-profit multiple of about 3.6 to 5.4 times.

If the capacity allocation rises to 15%, annual gross profit could increase to $307 million to $461 million, bringing the valuation multiple down to 2.4 to 3.6 times, Serenity said. Serenity added that Sivers' CEO previously confirmed the company is working with more foundries to expand capacity, and that its supply-chain certification scope has continued to expand since 2024. Serenity said revenue guidance and capacity planning may be raised further as the co-packaged optics market develops.

On demand, continuous-wave laser supply remains tight. Lumentum said in its earnings report that it has begun buying CW lasers from the open market to fulfill EML orders, while TrendForce said AMD is securing related capacity through long-term agreements. Serenity said any new certified independent capacity could be absorbed quickly as Sivers and partners including GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET and O-Net move toward mass production.

Morgan Stanley recently named Sivers, which has a market value of about $1.1 billion, as one of three core companies in the CPO laser field, alongside Coherent and Lumentum. Serenity said Sivers may also expand its total addressable market through acquisitions after its Nasdaq listing, following Lumentum's purchase of Cloud Light and its entry into the full optical module and optical engine markets.