Deutsche Bank: Fed Officials’ Speeches to Focus on June CPI Interpretation and Potential Rate-Hike Leaning

Federal Reserve officials are set for a heavy slate of public remarks ahead of the pre-meeting blackout period, with markets watching how policymakers interpret June CPI data and whether any show a leaning toward a July rate hike. According to Jin10, Deutsche Bank said the schedule follows several relatively quiet weeks for Fed commentary.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to open the week with a Monday speech at the New York Business Economics Association. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to testify on Tuesday and Wednesday. After the June CPI release, several officials are expected to deliver outlook remarks, including Fed Governor Lisa Cook on Wednesday, and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Dallas Fed President Lorie K. Logan, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey R. Schmid on Friday.

Deutsche Bank said it expects Warsh to reiterate his recent stance while remaining noncommittal about future policy actions. The bank added that Waller typically provides more detail on his policy reaction function and expectations, making his remarks a key focus for any signals about his policy inclination.

For the outlook-style speeches, Deutsche Bank said it will focus on how officials interpret this week’s inflation data and whether any appear inclined toward a July rate hike. It cited the June meeting minutes as showing that “a few” officials believed there was a case for raising rates last month.

Since then, Deutsche Bank said conditions have been mixed: oil prices and inflation expectations eased but later partially rebounded, and the unemployment rate fell further. The bank said it does not rule out a dissenting vote in support of a rate hike at the July meeting.