Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl said U.S. stocks have risen 9% since the Iran war began in late February, while Bitcoin has fallen 1% and gold has dropped 20%.
According to Odaily, Pandl said that while large AI-related spending has supported equities, Bitcoin and gold have underperformed partly because markets expect the Federal Reserve may raise rates to address inflation.
Pandl said Grayscale does not share that expectation and its base case is that the Fed will pause rate hikes. He added that since the war began, one-year Fed rate expectations have risen by about 60 basis points, about half of Fed officials think a rate hike in 2026 could be appropriate, and the European Central Bank has raised rates.
He said that as non-interest-bearing monetary assets, gold and Bitcoin compete with fiat currencies, and higher real rates increase the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and gold, which can weigh on demand.
Pandl said Bitcoin has a dual role in portfolios: as a scarce digital commodity that can serve as a long-term store of value, and as a public blockchain asset that provides exposure to the crypto industry’s long-term growth. He added that Bitcoin’s portfolio function is similar to, but not the same as, gold and growth stocks.
Pandl said that if the likelihood of rate hikes declines in line with Grayscale’s base case, Bitcoin could catch up to stocks’ performance.
Zach Pandl: Grayscale Expects Fed to Pause Rate Hikes as Bitcoin and Gold Lag Stocks
2026-06-23 01:33:54
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