Serenity Says Its Investment Approach Focuses on Trends Lacking Market Consensus

Serenity said in a post on X that its investment style relies on independent judgment, aiming to identify industry trends that the market has not yet broadly agreed on and to form high-conviction views based on real-world observation, industry research, and revenue forecasts.

According to Odaily, Serenity cited Raspberry Pi as an example, saying that while many investors still viewed it mainly as education and DIY hardware, it observed more developers using Raspberry Pi and Apple Mac Mini to deploy AI applications and verified this trend through online tutorials, leading it to conclude AI would become a new growth driver for the company.

Serenity said the company’s subsequent earnings report showed revenue rose 58% year over year, exceeding the market’s prior expectation of 14% growth.

Serenity said its investment view on AXT is based on research into the indium phosphide substrate supply chain and expectations of a photonics “supercycle.” It said AXT holds about a 40% share of the indium phosphide supply chain and occupies a key bottleneck position, adding that its long-term value is underestimated.

For X-FAB, Serenity said its thesis remains in a validation stage. It said it found indications in government documents, ASE materials, and supply-chain information that X-FAB is becoming an important participant, and that Nvidia is evaluating its related capabilities. Serenity said it will continue monitoring in the coming months for additional evidence to support this investment logic.

Serenity added that many current investment opportunities come from synthesizing fragmented information, real-world trends, and industry changes, rather than relying only on traditional valuation models.