Conference Board: Leading Indicators Fall for Second Consecutive Month, Growth to Slow End-to-End

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager and head of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said the leading US economic indicator fell again in September, falling for the second consecutive month. Weaker consumer and business expectations led the overall contraction in the index. The main drags on the indicator include consumer expectations, the ISM new orders index, new orders for manufacturing consumer goods and raw materials, initial jobless claims and the yield curve. However, there are also some indicators that provide positive contributions, including stock prices, the leading credit index, and new orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft. Indicator trends suggest that US economic activity will slow between the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. Overall, economic growth remains fragile and uneven, and companies are dealing with the twin challenges of tariff policy adjustments and weaker consumer momentum. The US GDP is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, with a further slowdown to 1.5% in 2026.