Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, wrote that traditional finance (TradFi) is desperately trying to maintain its dominance in stock trading. It will be interesting to see how they respond to the rapid market acceptance of index perpetual contracts. The first market-dominant perpetual contract space will be offshore trading of US stock price risk.
US stocks, and all stocks, will eventually be tokenized. But index perpetual contracts do not rely on stock tokenization to succeed. Stock perpetual contracts already have a mature infrastructure that can be rapidly scaled up. The daily trading volume of stock index perpetual contracts has now exceeded 100 million US dollars. As traders and market makers become familiar with the contract specifications, the trading volume will soon reach billions of dollars per day. Given the sudden global announcements that often follow the TradFi market close every Friday, index perpetual contracts will become a tool for institutional and retail traders to hedge risk on weekends. This will force large US securities trading platforms to trade 24/7 faster than originally planned.
I predict that by the end of 2026, price discoveries in the largest US technology stocks and major stock indices such as the S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will occur in the retail perpetual market, when the financial press presents the S & P 500 perpetual as the best source of pricing, rather than the Globex version of the CME.
Arthur Hayes: Expect the price discovery of the largest US technology stocks to take place in the perpetual contract market
2025-11-28 02:33:31
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