The progress of the US Supreme Court tariff debate: Trump's probability of victory decreases

The Supreme Court on Wednesday held oral arguments on the legality of Mr. Trump's large-scale reciprocal tariffs. In addition to the liberal justices on the Supreme Court, several conservative justices also questioned the legality of Trump's tariffs. Chief Justice John Roberts said that Trump's tariffs are a tax on Americans, which has always been a core power of Congress. Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett, three of the three justices appointed by Mr. Trump as president, also raised questionable questions and delved into the arguments of tariff opponents. The court, which has a 6:3 majority of conservative justices, is likely to announce a decision in December. Forecasting platform Polymarket recently gave Trump a 27% chance of victory, down from 40% before the debate and briefly falling to a new low of 18% during the hearing.