Cobie: Whether bitcoin returns diminishing is uncertain, but counterfeit products will become increasingly difficult and dangerous

On November 3rd, crypto KOL Cobie tweeted that it is uncertain whether Bitcoin will continue to provide diminishing returns, but the transaction of counterfeit products (on average) will become more difficult and dangerous, which is an irreversible trend. Reasons include:
The buyer's competition is intense and increasingly mature, while belief is decreasing.
Mainly through perpetual contracts and leveraged transactions.
Market capitalization is overvalued and heavily diluted by default;
The FDV at startup captures all optimism, ignoring price and valuation.
The premarket market price found that too much leads to insecurity.
In 2017, buyers bought spot and held it for weeks/months. Early low valuations worked because of strong beliefs and increased positions on the way up. In 2025, buyers bought through perpetual contracts without checking valuations and sold when profit and loss turned negative or forced position squaring. However, counterfeit products are still the best return area for smart people. Skill expression and asset selection are more important. Patience is more rewarding in a liquid market than "early" entry.