The Fed meeting notes that labor market conditions will remain largely unchanged or weaken slightly

The Federal Reserve meeting notes that participants generally expect labor market conditions to remain largely unchanged or to weaken only modestly with appropriate monetary policy. Several participants noted that the number of monthly job gains consistent with keeping the unemployment rate stable has declined over the past year and is likely to remain low due to a large number of workers nearing retirement age and persistently low net migration. Participants indicated that they were uncertain about the outlook for the labor market and saw an increase in downside risks to employment between meetings. In support of this view, participants cited a number of indicators, including low hiring and firing rates, indicating a lack of labor market dynamism; the concentration of job growth in a few industries; and rising unemployment among some groups that have historically been more sensitive to changes in the economic cycle, such as African Americans and young adults. Several participants argued that continued use of artificial intelligence could reduce labor demand. Some participants also pointed to survey results that showed a decline in household confidence in the labor market.