Analysts: The market is in the mature stage of a bull market, with peak signals expected to appear in October-November 2025

Cryptoquant analyst Axel Adler Jr released a market analysis saying that 504 days have passed since the last bitcoin halving.
Comparing the current cycle with the previous two, it can be said that the market is in the mature phase of a bull market. In the middle of this cycle, there was an extreme peak in "days of value destruction (VDD) " when the price of Bitcoin reached $70,000 in March, followed by two more gentle waves of selling around $98,000 and $117,000, but neither of which reached the March extremes. This segmented long-term holder (LTH) selling suggests that this is a more sustainable redistribution process, driven largely by institutional demand: supply exited the market in batches after hitting record highs (ATH), which the market was able to absorb, resulting in a more fragmented and elongated price peak.
The final verdict on the current cycle peak needs to wait for the "Peak Flag", which is triggered when the spot price is about 11 times the realized price of the long-term holder. This is a classic late-cycle indicator: prices are rising faster than the slowly rising long-term holder cost base. The next approximate window is forecast to be October-November 2025, assuming we also see a large sell-off by experienced holders and short-term volatility spiking and then starting to subside.