James Check, principal analyst at Glassnode, said Bitcoin's market cycle was not anchored to halving events, as is commonly believed, but was driven by other factors, such as bull and bear cycles. "In my opinion, Bitcoin has gone through three cycles, but they are not centered around halving," Check said on Wednesday, referring to the blockchain's cut in mining rewards every four years.
He points out that market cycles actually revolve around "adoption of trends and market structure", with the market peak in 2017 and the bottom in 2022 being key turning points. Check divides the first three cycles into:
The "adoption cycle" (2011-2018), driven by early adoption by retail investors.
The "growth cycle" (2018-2022), driven by the "highly leveraged Wild West boom and bust";
"Maturity Cycle" (2022-present), driven by "Institutional Maturity and Stability".
"Things have changed after the bear market in 2022 and those who assume history will repeat itself may miss the real signal because they are staring at the noise of history," he says.
Analyst: The Bitcoin market cycle is not centered around the halving event
2025-08-27 05:54:16
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