National Gold Macro: Powell's Jackson Hole "Great Retreat" may prove that Trump's political high-pressure is finally paying off

According to the Guojin Macro Research Report, Powell came without warning at the Jackson Hole meeting, and some remarks went against the statement of the FOMC press conference in July. In his review and outlook on the economy, Powell's views on the labor market changed 180 degrees, and he began to be extremely worried about the downside risk of employment. This shift in the frame of reference is very similar to that of no interest rate cut in July, which is difficult to explain by simple changes in economic data. It may prove that Trump's political pressure on the Federal Reserve has finally paid off. Although the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for 2025 have been maintained at 2 times, this time such a clear dovish signal has strengthened not only the 25bp interest rate cut in September, but also the possibility of consecutive interest rate cuts this year. We would like to remind that the side effects of the loose monetary policy environment and the dovish policy framework cannot be ignored; after the sharp reduction of interest rates on the inflation dynamics that are more difficult to control in the United States in the future, a re-accelerating US economy will inevitably face a higher inflation center; this year is more "stagnant" and next year is more "inflated".