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Analysis: Powell has actually caved, cut interest rates in September "on-board DingTalk"

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2025-08-24 04:48:46
The Kobeissi Letter released its latest market analysis, saying that Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell has effectively capitulated. The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in a month, blaming "weakness in the labor market". At the same time, PPI inflation rose at the highest level in three years, and CPI inflation was above 2% for 53 consecutive months.
In order to better understand what is happening, one must first understand the Fed's mandate: The Fed's purpose is to reduce unemployment and avoid inflation/deflation, which is the Fed's "dual mandate". Since 2021, the Fed has been highly focused on the inflation side. Yet Fed Chairperson Powell's speech on Friday made a major shift: "A change in the balance of risks may require us to adjust our policy stance." In other words, the Fed now sees a greater risk of unemployment than inflation, which all but confirms that a rate cut is coming.
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