JPMorgan Chase: Trump tariffs bring $400 billion in taxes while threatening recession

Michael Feroli, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in a note that Trump's tariffs will generate significant revenue, but at the cost of higher prices, which could impact consumer purchasing power. He wrote: "On a static basis, the tariffs announced today will increase revenue by nearly $400 billion, or about 1.3% of GDP. We estimate that the measures announced today could raise personal consumption expenditure prices by 1-1.5% this year, and we believe the inflationary impact will materialize by the middle of the year. The resulting blow to purchasing power could result in negative real disposable personal income growth in the second to third quarters, which could result in real consumer spending contracting in those quarters as well. This impact alone could put the economy in danger of recession. " (Jin Ten)