Federal Reserve resolution outlook: market focus on Powell's press conference

The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and adjust the policy rate to 3.75-4%. At the same time, it is expected that the central bank will announce the end of quantitative tightening (QT). The quarterly economic forecast report will not be released at this meeting, so the focus will be mainly on Powell's press conference. It is expected that Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell will once again characterize the rate cut as a risk management measure, and in the absence of key economic data, do not disclose too much information to maintain the stability of market expectations. The current market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on the DingTalk board in October, and the probability of a rate cut in December is also close to 100%. A total of 117 basis points will be cut in 2026, higher than the 75 basis points expected by the Federal Reserve. (Golden Ten)