The U.S. interest rate futures market pricing shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year after the release of CPI data.
Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Group, said that the market will see this week as a small "reset" of the US macro narrative, with employment and inflation data to be released in a narrow window that could quickly reprice interest rates. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week and expects another cut in 2026, but the market expects at least two more cuts next year. "If the data is mixed or slightly weaker than expected, then the narrative of a soft landing will hold...
The U.S. interest rate market has unleashed a huge bet of up to 40,000 contracts, with traders betting that the Federal Reserve will announce the end of QT this week, in the ultimate gamble on the shift in monetary policy. Click to view...
US interest rate volatility has fallen "off a cliff", and Wall Street's originally defensive position has turned into a source of losses. Nomura believes that in the long run, this is related to the market's TACO belief. Click to view...
Rajappa, head of US interest rate strategy at Socie ́ te ́ Ge ́ ne ́ rale: The Fed will have to cut rates upfront. The "price tag" for the Fed to spread interest rate cuts is a bit high.
Vice President Vance said U.S. interest rates are too high and the Federal Reserve is not doing its job.
Trump is fighting an impossible war! Research shows that US interest rates may remain high above 4.5% for a long time, which is behind some irreversible deep forces. Even if Powell is replaced, it will not change this reality. Click to view..
U.S. interest rate futures show an increased likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in September, with traders putting the odds at 65% that the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its December meeting.
Rajappa, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Socie ́ te ́ Ge ́ ne ́ rale, said the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September remains.
On January 13, U.S. interest rate futures no longer fully priced in expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates even once this year, after Friday's strong monthly employment data underscored the resilience of the U.S. economy. Interest rate futures showed that traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by only 24.26 basis points by December this year, compared with about 43 basis points before the employment data was released. At present, traders are increasingly ...