On Polymarket, as well as other prediction markets, traders are increasingly betting that the US government shutdown will last until the end of October or longer. According to the implied probability of trading prices on Polymarket, there is currently a 37% chance that the US government shutdown will last more than 30 days, up from 15% when the shutdown began on October 1. The longest government shutdown in US history occurred during Trump's first term, lasting 34 days from December 2018 to Janu...