News list for "Probability"
The meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska on August 15 is not only a new node in the diplomatic game of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but also a high-risk attempt by Russia to break its isolation and the United States to test the possibility of peace. What information do you need to know?
Market data suggest that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June has fallen to just over 50% as one-year inflation expectations in the United States rose to their highest level since November 2023.
The Canadian swap market expects a 53% chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates in March, down from 64% before the jobs data.
On January 30th, according to CME "Federal Reserve Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in March is 82.0%, and the probability of reducing interest rates by 25 basis points is 18.0%. The probability of maintaining current interest rates unchanged in May is 57.0%, the probability of reducing interest rates by 25 basis points is 37.5%, and the probability of reducing interest rates by 50 basis points is 5.5%. The Federal Reserve maintained interest ra...
On January 30th, according to CME "Federal Reserve Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by March is 77.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 22.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.1%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by May is 55.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 38.0%, and the probability of a cumulative ra...
Polymarket predicts a 60% probability that "Bitcoin will hit an all-time high this month", and is now reporting 59%.
Polymarket forecasts that the major airdrop probabilities that may be launched in Q1 this year are as follows: Berachain: 89%; Linea: 84%; Jumpers: 38%; pump.fun: 32%; Aleo: 30%; Farcaster: 21%. On-chain data shows that since its launch, the Berachain network has processed more than 533 million transactions. Of these, 57.14 million transactions took place in the last 14 days. Additionally, the number of active Berachain addresses has increased from 945,000 on December 15 to nearly 3 million curr...
According to HODL15 Capital, more than 20 companies are likely to be included in the Bitwise Bitcoin Standard Company ETF, and 30% are bitcoin mining companies. Previously, it was reported that Bitwise has applied to the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF (Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF). The fund aims to invest in the stocks of companies that adopt the Bitcoin standard, with at least 1,000 BTC in the company's funds.
On December 3rd, after Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed his preference for supporting interest rate cuts in December, U.S. interest rate futures slightly increased the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this month to 70%.
Minsheng Securities said that the probability of the Federal Reserve suspending interest rate cuts in the middle of next year has increased. Unemployment remains low, coupled with the decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates two to three times next year, and may suspend interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. In a small probability scenario, too much tariff and immigration policy may cause US stocks to fall and the US economy to decline significantly, so there ...
