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Analysis: Taylor's Law Shows Fed Is "Seven Beats Slow" in Cutting Rates

The classic "Taylor's Law" model suggests that the Fed's base rate is now about 1.7 percentage points above its reasonable level, equivalent to seven 25 basis point rate cuts, according to agency analysts. The previous July non-farm payrolls data showed the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. The latest inflation data showed that the so-called core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy items, was up 2.6% year-on-year in June. Fed officials assumed a "neutral real rate" of 0.8% and a long...

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2024-08-02 19:49:58
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