On August 8, JPMorgan Chase said that three-quarters of the world's carry trades have been positioned squaring, and the recent decline has erased this year's gains. Quantitative strategists Antonin Delair, Meera Chandan and Kunj Padh said in a letter to clients that returns on the G-10, emerging markets and global carry trade baskets tracked by the bank have fallen by about 10% since May. The decline erased year-to-date returns and slashed the cumulative gains since late 2022.
JPMorgan said it expects the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points each in September and November.