Once the US government shutdown ends, heavy data such as non-farm payrolls and CPI will "spew out", destined to bring a "bloody storm"! Traders have started hedging... Click to view...
Morgan Stanley said the US non-farm payrolls report should reduce the likelihood of a near-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve. With the inflation outlook more favorable, a rate cut in March remains more likely.
Morgan Stanley said the US non-farm payrolls report should reduce the likelihood of a near-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
After the release of the US non-farm payrolls data, traders now see an 85% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December, compared with 67% before the release of the jobs report.
Mr. Summers, the former Treasury secretary, said that while the August non-farm payrolls report was not particularly bad, it did make it harder to predict how much the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates this month. "The data, while not showing very significant weakness, certainly won't give you a sense of relief if you're concerned about recent statistical trends," Mr. Summers said in an interview.
On September 6th, according to the Wall Street Journal, the US job growth rebounded slightly in August, but the Federal Reserve is still expected to start cutting interest rates at its meeting in two weeks. The US economy added 142,000 jobs, up from July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. July's job gains have sparked fears of an economic slowdown and shook the global financial marekt. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2% in August. The latest non-farm payroll report...
"Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said the non-farm payrolls report is likely to provide a clear signal about the extent of the Fed's first rate cut, whether it is 25 basis points or 50 basis points, the market will immediately price it up to 90%. But this non-farm payrolls report does not solve this problem well, and the market is currently pricing in a "50-50 basis point cut". The overall non-farm payroll data is not bad enough to change the benchmark expectation to a 50 basis point cut, but cons...
After the release of the non-farm payrolls data, traders raised their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year.
After Friday's US non-farm payrolls report triggered a major move, JPMorgan Asset Management said its base case remained for a soft landing for the US economy and did not expect an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve ahead of its regular meeting. Kim Crawford, fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, said there could be some "noise" in the report and subsequent data could show a very gradual slowdown in the labour market. "If there is no overall improvement in the labou...
The weak July non-farm payrolls report has heightened market concerns that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates too late, but policymakers are unlikely to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, as a very large cut could be seen as a warning sign. Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, said "we don't want to overreact to any one month's data". In addition, many economists who closely follow the Fed immediately refuted the idea of a 50 basis point cut. Gregory Da, chief economist at ...