Modeling by Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan shows that the probability of a recession suggested by the market has risen sharply, based on signals from the US bond market and the performance of stocks that are, to a lesser extent, extremely sensitive to the ups and downs of the business cycle. According to Goldman Sachs, equity and bond markets now see a 41 per cent chance of a US recession, up from 29 per cent in April. A similar model by JPMorgan calculates that the probability of a recession has ju...