News list for " Capital Economics"
Falling inflation in the eurozone is likely to cause the European Central Bank to cut interest rates again next year. The ECB has kept its key interest rate unchanged in the past few policy meetings, the eurozone economy has shown resilience and inflation is largely under control. But Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief eurozone economist at Capital Economics, said slower wage growth and lower commodity prices could lead to core inflation falling below 2 per cent next year, with headline inflation...
Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Capital Economics, said in the report that short-term US interest rates were at risk of rising and the market was overconfident in the prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. He pointed out that the US money market has already factored in at least two interest rate cuts this year, reflecting market expectations that the US economy and inflation will slow further. Thozet believes this expectation is too high, noting that the cu...
Capital Economics economist Abhijit Surya said the RBA cut reflected market expectations for further easing. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates to 2.85% in the coming period from the current 3.60%. The RBA noted that the scope and scale of US tariffs were slightly clearer and believes the risk of a more extreme outcome has diminished. However, trade tensions will weigh on household and business spending for some time.
Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote that President Trump's nomination of his economic adviser, Stephen Millan, to the Fed's board of governors was a good choice. Millan is currently set to fill the Fed board vacancy in the short term, but Ashworth said he could be re-nominated, especially if he leans toward the rate cuts Trump has loudly endorsed. The move was "a welcome surprise".
Foreign 1. Capital Economics: Trump's firing of Powell will shock the market, and the new chairperson will not cut interest rates as he wishes. 2. Holland International: The European Central Bank cannot be satisfied with existing policy results and stagnate. 3. JPMorgan Chase: "The Federal Reserve is not subject to political pressure" is a myth, and US stocks may continue to rise due to interest rate cuts. 4. Barclays: Weak labor force in the UK may strengthen confidence in the Bank of England t...
Capital Economics said the continued lack of clarity on the tariff issue could delay the Bank of Japan's move to tighten monetary policy. Its base case remains that Tokyo will reach an agreement with Washington to avoid the threat of 25 per cent tariffs. If that happens soon and there is no increase in tariffs, or only a modest increase in tariffs, the case for the BoJ to raise rates in October will not be shaken. Inflation is now well above the BoJ forecast in May, and the Japanese economy is c...
Thomas Mathews, an analyst at Capital Economics, said in a note that US Treasuries were expected to struggle for the rest of the year despite their recent strong performance. "The weeks-long rally in US Treasuries appears to have paused," Mathews said. Comments by Federal Reserve chairperson Jerome Powell at a conference in Sintra, Portugal, appeared to be a factor in the pause. Mr. Powell said there would be no rush to cut interest rates as long as the economy was stable. "As far as we are conc...
Japan's latest PMI data supports Capital Economics' view that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates sooner rather than later. Japan's composite PMI rose to a four-month high of 51.4 in June. Both manufacturing and services PMIs edged up in June. Capital Economics economist Abhijit Surya wrote that the manufacturing output index points to a renewed acceleration in industrial production, while new export orders point to a modest increase in sales volumes. The services PMI is well above hist...
Foreign 1. Holland International: Japan's core inflation supports the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in May. 2. Capital Economics: Sweden's central bank may raise interest rates next. 3. Capital Economics: The Swiss National Bank's interest rate cut will be the last time in the cycle. Domestic 1. CICC: The big model promotes Zhongtai to enter a new stage, and the technology hardware industry chain is expected to benefit. 2. CICC: Trump urgently needs to solve two fundamental problems, the...
HSBC Holdings + 0.2%; Capital Economics + 0.2%; Jefferies + 0.2%; Goldman Sachs + 0.3%; ING + 0.3%; Citigroup + 0.3%; ABN Amro + 0.3%; Lloyds + 0.3%; Mizuho + 0.3%; BNP + 0.3%; Allied Banking + 0.3%; Morgan Stanley + 0.3%; Bank of America Merrill Lynch + 0.3%; Deutsche Bank + 0.3%; Wells Fargo + 0.3%; Barclays + 0.3%; Nomura + 0.3%; Scotiabank + 0.3%; Royal Bank + 0.3%; Deutsche Bank + 0.3%; Moody's Analytics: + 0.3%; Panson Macro: + 0.3%; JPMorgan Chase: + 0.3%; Santander: + 0.3%; UBS: + 0.3%; ...
