Moody's: Latest economic data could increase Harris' chances of victory

While Mr. Trump has a clear advantage in the prediction markets, those betting on him may want to consider the latest economic data suggesting that Mr. Harris, as the incumbent party candidate, could benefit from a substantial tailwind, according to analysts at Moody's Analytics, who have drawn on studies of past presidential elections. Justin Begley, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said: "Analytical models suggest that this election is a dead end, as four states - Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, with a combined 57 electoral votes - are considered a dead end." A recent simulation for clients showed that mortgage rates, which have fallen significantly since last year, as well as continued declines in gasoline prices, are improving Harris' odds. The increase in household income may also help improve Harris' odds. "Harris' projected popular vote margin has increased by an average of 0.2 percentage points nationally, largely due to our upward revision of projections for actual household income in each state," said Begley. Results from 1,000 runs of the model put Harris' odds of winning at 55.5 percent. (Golden Ten)