The US consumer confidence index rose, and expectations of the election influenced changes in consumer sentiment

On October 25th, data showed that the consumer confidence index rose for the third consecutive month, edging up to the highest level since April 2024. Market sentiment is currently more than 40% higher than the trough in June 2022. This month's increase is mainly due to slightly improved purchasing conditions for durable goods, in part due to easing of interest rates. The upcoming general election has a large impact on consumer expectations. Overall, the proportion of consumers expecting a Harris presidency fell to 57% in October from 63% the previous month. Sentiment rose 8% among Republicans who believe a Trump presidency would be better for the economy as they increasingly believe their favorite candidate will be the next president. In contrast, confidence among Democrats fell 1%. Independents, as usual, fell somewhere in between, with sentiment up 4% this month. Regardless of the eventual winner, a significant number of consumers are likely to update their economic expectations based on the election results.