Greeks.live: Options data shows that market expectations for October volatility are low, and the market expects an 85% probability of the next rate cut of 25Bp.

Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media that the US economic data in October was strong, and the market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on November 8 have dropped significantly. At present, according to the 30-day federal funds futures price, the market's expected probability of the next interest rate cut of 25Bp is 85%, and the expected probability of not cutting interest rates is 15%. This data is significantly lower than last month.
At the same time, the predicted probability of Trump being elected president has risen significantly in recent days, and the balance of the US election on November 5 is tipping towards Trump. From the perspective of options data, the market's expectations for volatility in October are very low, with the monthly average IV already below 45%, while the average IV due on November 8 a week later is 55%. This shows that most market participants are more cautious about betting on this month's market, and it is the current mainstream mood to continue to wait and see.