Guosheng Macro: This time the Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate cut may strengthen the market's recession expectations

The Guosheng Macro team said that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp, slightly exceeding market expectations, but Powell's speech was hawkish, saying that this rate cut is not the norm. The dot plot shows another 50bp drop within the year, and the market expects another 75bp drop within the year. Combined with historical laws and asset performance after this meeting, this sharp interest rate cut should strengthen the market's concerns about the US economic recession; tend to think that, considering that it takes time to falsify recession expectations, and 11/5 will usher in the US election, the prices of major asset classes may fluctuate greatly in the short term. Follow-up needs to keep an eye on whether various US data can confirm or falsify recession expectations, and also keep an eye on the progress of the election. (Jin Ten)