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国盛宏观:本次美联储大幅降息可能会强化市场的衰退预期

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2024-09-19 01:31:58
国盛宏观团队表示,美联储降息 50bp,幅度略超市场预期,不过鲍威尔讲话偏鹰派,称本次降息幅度并非常态。点阵图显示年内再降 50bp,市场预期年内再降 75bp。结合历史规律和本次会议后的资产表现,本次大幅降息应是强化了市场对美国经济衰退的担忧;倾向于认为,考虑到衰退预期的证伪需要时间,且 11/5 将迎来美国大选,短期内大类资产价格可能波动较大,后续需紧盯美国各项数据是否能证实或证伪衰退预期,也要紧盯大选进展。(金十)
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