Market analysis: The Federal Reserve may disappoint extreme dovish investors

Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply this week, but they are likely to be disappointed because the performance of the U.S. economy simply does not warrant an aggressive rate cut. According to the CME's Fed Watch tool, current U.S. interest rate futures prices show a 65% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut and a possible 116 basis point cut this year. But a flurry of economic data on Tuesday prompted the Atlanta Fed to raise its forecast for U.S. third-quarter GDP growth from 2.6% to 3.0%, suggesting that the economy is not that bad. After weighing all the factors, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and Powell may reiterate the data dependence. The Fed's dot plot is unlikely to confirm the current pricing of aggressive and rapid rate cuts, but instead shows a more measured pace of rate cuts. This could be interpreted as a "hawkish rate cut", forcing investors who rushed to bet on a sharp rate cut to cover their positions. (Jin Ten)