Principal Asset Management: History shows that the Federal Reserve is more likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points

Sima Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in a note that while one might expect the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points this week, history suggests a 25 basis point cut is more likely. "Since the late 1980s... a 25 basis point cut has become the norm, with 50 basis points being the exception." Only two rate cut cycles have started by more than 25 basis points, she said: during the dotcom bubble in January 2001, and during the subprime mortgage crisis in September 2007. Both periods stand out, characterized by concerns about severe asset price bubbles and financial systemic risks.