CITIC Securities: Maintain the Federal Reserve's forecast of three interest rate cuts of 25bps each year

The CPI in the United States in August was basically in line with expectations. Overall, it continued the "moderate" tone of the previous report, but the core CPI reading was flawed due to the impact of rental inflation. We expect US inflation to be roughly stable year-on-year during the year. We still believe that the trend of cooling rental inflation is not reversed, maintaining the forecast of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times during the year, each time 25bps. The election debate has weakened the market's concerns about the risk of "reflation" in the United States next year. Recently, the market has been more sensitive to growth data in the tone of easing inflation. You can pay attention to the allocation opportunities of short-end US bonds and defensive US stocks.