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中金:美联储9月降息25BP仍是基准情形

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2024-09-08 23:54:14
中金公司研报指出,美国8月份失业率下降反映出临时性失业的逆转,符合我们的预期,但新增非农就业人数放缓,表明企业对劳动力的需求也在降低。好消息是,企业没有大幅裁员迹象,申请失业金人数仍然保持低位。这意味着劳动力市场仍然稳定,并未“掉下悬崖”。往前看,美国经济仍有望实现软着陆,但美联储也必须采取行动。我们认为美联储在9月降息25个基点的可能性更大,在这之后也可能视情况而提高降息幅度。
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