The non-agricultural sector was ambiguous in August, and the policy direction after the interest rate cut in September remains to be seen

The August non-farm payrolls data has drawn attention from both hawks and doves, leaving the Federal Reserve's policy direction in the autumn full of uncertainty. A 25 basis point cut in September is almost a foregone conclusion, but the situation after that has become more complicated. The ambiguous non-farm payrolls report will not change the Fed's inclination to start cutting interest rates at the September meeting. But it does not provide much clear information on what will happen next - neither does it suggest that a soft landing is on the table, nor does it suggest that the rapid deterioration of the labor market requires an active response from the Fed. There are two more jobs reports to be released before the November meeting. The June dot plot predicts only one rate cut in 2024, but the September dot plot could show more cuts, although not necessarily in line with market expectations. October's employment, inflation and economic growth data will be key in determining next steps.