"Fed megaphone": unemployment jumps or 50bp rate cut gets wider support
2024-09-06 01:31:20
"Fed Messenger" Nick Timiraos: Friday happens to be the last day before Fed officials enter a period of pre-meeting silence. Fed Williams and Fed Governor Paul Waller are scheduled to speak after the jobs report, which is the last chance to set expectations for the upcoming meeting. With economic growth and inflation slowing, it would be more reasonable for the Fed to lower interest rates from around 5.3% currently to around 4.5%. If there are no signs that July's employment weakness will continue into August, some Fed officials may resist a significant 50 basis point rate cut. But officials who were open to a rate cut at the July meeting are likely to back a 50 basis point cut in September, with broader support if unemployment jumps again and job growth slows further.
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