Analysis: Only 50 basis points may be cut this year

Analysts say the FOMC's July meeting notes were too dovish, making it clear that the Fed will cut rates in September, which is the most information Powell can reveal in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday. This will make traders (too) optimistic that there will be four rate cuts before the end of the year, while the Fed may only cut rates two or three times. We can see that the swap market prices the Fed to cut rates by about 95 basis points by December, implying that the Fed will cut rates in each of the three remaining meetings this year, and suggesting that one of them will be a major rate cut. And if you pay attention to the discussions of Fed officials, you will find that this is an extremely optimistic view. The Fed is more likely to skip the November meeting to get consensus on a rate cut, so it could end up cutting rates by only 50 basis points this year.