Goldman Sachs US election forecast: Harris has a big chance of winning, but will become a "lame duck president"

Goldman Sachs said in a research report released this week that the current situation in the US election may lead to the end of "lame duck President Harris". Goldman Sachs said that at the national polling level, Harris currently leads Trump by about 1.5 percentage points, and leads in the key swing state of Pennsylvania. Overall, Harris has a probability of winning in November of about 52% to 54%. Since she took over the banner against Trump from Biden, the election has continued to rise in the past month. Since August 1 this year, the probability of a Republican winning the election has dropped by 10 percentage points, and the probability of a Democrat winning the election but a Republican controlling both houses of the Senate or at least one chamber has increased by 11 percentage points. Goldman Sachs also pointed out that while this is the most likely implied scenario at present, the outcome remains highly uncertain.