Analysis: CPI may stimulate the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September

The revival of bullish bets in the world's largest bond market ahead of the release of July consumer price index (CPI) data later on Wednesday means traders are bracing for further gains as they expect the CPI data to show continued declines in price pressures. Investors betting on further gains in the Treasury market are eyeing upcoming US inflation data that they hope will further confirm the Fed's case for accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts. Traders are divided on whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in September, with swap transactions showing the market expects the Fed to cut rates by 36 basis points in September. Overall, they expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 1 percentage point over the remainder of 2024.