CITIC Securities: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps for the first time in September, and there is room for 50-75bps rate cuts throughout the year

CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in July 2024 was lower than expected. The previous value of new non-farm payrolls was revised down, the unemployment rate rose, and the wage growth rate slowed down, all of which showed that the US labor market continued to cool, but the marginal change was not large in the historical data. The unemployment rate of 4.3% was still a historical low level, and there was an increase in labor supply and weather factors, so the data should not be over-interpreted. The non-farm payrolls data in July may be out of the Fed's "dessert" but not out of the "comfort zone", and the "recession trade" is not the same as the "recession". We expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25bps for the first time at the FOMC meeting in September, and there is room for 50-75bps interest rate cuts throughout the year. The 10Y US Treasury yield will run in the 3.5-4% range during the year.