The Federal Reserve's outlook: July meeting may disappoint doves, Powell will only issue initial hints of interest rate cuts in September

Markets have fully priced in the Fed's September rate cut, but the big question at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting is: How clear will the FOMC signal?
Foreign media economist Anna Wong and others believe that communication from the July meeting will only provide initial hints of a September rate cut, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pointing to the possibility of a rate cut "if the data develops as we expect." Economists believe that the main reason for the hesitation is simply that there is still a large amount of data to be released before the September 17-18 FOMC meeting - there are two more inflation and employment reports before that, and the data may change a lot. The best time to give a clear hint of a September rate cut would be Powell's speech at the central bank's annual meeting in Jackson Hole at the end of August, when he will have one more month of employment and inflation data.
Economists' expectations for the July 30-31 FOMC meeting are that, despite calls from many Wall Street analysts for a rate cut, the FOMC will unanimously decide to leave rates unchanged at 5.25% -5.50%. Inflation data since the June FOMC meeting has been encouraging, while economic activity data has been slightly worrisome. In summary, the committee may believe that the balance of risks between its two objectives - price stability and full employment - is roughly equal.