Goldman Sachs analyst: Expect a large outflow of funds from U.S. stocks in August, awaiting the election results

Scott Rubner, managing director and tactician at Goldman Sachs Global Markets, said that U.S. stocks will experience two painful weeks starting in early August, with large passive outflows from investors likely to dent returns, and disappointing corporate earnings that will force systemic funds to sell stocks. The first half of 2024 saw massive equity inflows from equity ETFs and mutual funds, the second-highest on record at $231 billion, and the following August is typically the worst month of the year for equity inflows. Funds have been deployed in the third quarter, and no inflows are expected in August. "Buyers are out of ammunition, and I'm watching for outflows," Rubner wrote in a note to clients on Monday. US and global equity markets typically see outflows ahead of elections, where net hedge fund exposures are typically low, before inflows resume in November.