Bitfinex report: Crypto market may have reached a potential partial bottom, but beware of the Federal Reserve's next news agenda

On July 8th, the latest report from Bitfinex Alpha said that on July 3rd, the price of bitcoin fell below the 120-day range to reach $53,219 due to market concerns about the sell-off by the German government and Mt. Gox creditors. But weekend market data suggest that a potential partial bottom may have been reached. The market realizes that the bitcoin transferred by the German government, although the nominal value is large, accounts for a relatively small proportion of the total trading volume. Volatility indicators show that the market expects to be more stable in the future, and bitcoin may hover at current levels or decline less. Market positioning shows complacency with short sellers. There are more late short investors in the short term, and neither side may have clear beliefs. Long-term bitcoin holders continue to make significant profits, while short-term holders may have nearly dried up. The Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate turned negative for the first time since its May 1 bottom, which could indicate that the market is oversold, and combined with the recovering SOPR, usually means that the market is finding a bottom. On the macroeconomic front, Federal Reserve officials are cautious about cutting interest rates, although labor market data and easing inflation support loose monetary conditions. The agency does not expect the Fed to cut rates at its July 30-31 policy meeting, but remains hopeful for a September cut.