Federal Reserve meeting notes will show attendees increasingly concerned about labor market conditions

Upcoming FOMC meeting notes will shed light on why the committee lowered its expectations for a 2024 rate cut while keeping growth and unemployment expectations unchanged. The unexpected rise in inflation in Quarter 1 this year has indeed shaken policymakers' confidence in the path of inflation, but in any case, the inflation projections provided by the Fed in June may be outdated after CPI and PCE showed a marked slowdown in May. The baseline scenario is that meeting notes are likely to show that participants' judgments of the balance of risks are balanced. The pace of deterioration in labor market conditions is increasingly important to the timing of the first rate cut. Although FOMC members left unemployment expectations unchanged, meeting notes will show they are increasingly concerned that the labor market could cool rapidly, leaving the door open for two rate cuts this year.